Enrollment and Retention

Enrollment of undergraduates ticked up 1.2% in fall 2023 compared to the year before, notching the first headcount increase among these students in over a decade, according to final figures from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. 

“Undergraduates have finally turned the corner it appears after years of decline,” Doug Shapiro, the research center’s executive director, said on a call Jan. 23 with reporters. “I’m sure that many colleges are hoping that they have finally seen the bottom and are now starting to recover.”

Meanwhile, graduate enrollment rose just slightly, 0.6%, from the prior year. That marks a reversal from fall 2022, when graduate enrollment slipped 0.9%. 

Overall, college enrollment increased 1.1% in the fall, amounting to about 193,000 additional students. 

However, Shapiro cautioned that colleges are “still in a deep hole.” There are about 1 million fewer undergraduates than five years ago, and overall enrollment has dropped around 4% since fall 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic impacted student headcounts. 

Additionally, higher education experts have warned that colleges will soon face a so-called demographic cliff, when the number of high school graduates sharply falls because of declining birth rates during the Great Recession.

The clearinghouse’s final fall 2023 report also presents changes to some earlier estimates. Although some top-line figures track with the center’s preliminary findings released in October — which were based on roughly half of the Title IV degree-granting institutions that report to clearinghouse — other major indicators changed as more colleges provided their data. 

For instance, the final undergraduate enrollment increase is smaller than what the center originally estimated, just 1.2% versus 2.1%. The final figures also show that enrollment declined at HBCUs, while the preliminary figures estimated an increase. And the center’s final figures show enrollment of first-year students rose slightly in fall 2023, even though the preliminary figures estimated a decline. 

“We saw more of a variance from that initial sample than we normally do,” Shapiro said. 

The clearinghouse also released more detailed data Jan. 24, providing a deeper look into how headcounts are changing at community colleges. 

Below, we’re rounding up three major enrollment trends uncovered from the final fall figures.

For the first time, the research center looked at enrollment trends at community colleges that primarily prepare students to transfer to four-year colleges versus those that focus mostly on vocational training. 

“There’s quite a big difference,” Shapiro said. 

Community colleges mostly focused on vocational training saw their enrollment increase 16% in fall 2023, rising to about 813,000 students. Meanwhile, enrollment at community colleges primarily focused on transferring students ticked up only 0.2%, increasing to about 2.1 million students. 

Two-year colleges with a mixed focus had a slightly larger enrollment increase of 1.1%. They enrolled nearly 1.6 million students in fall 2023.

Final fall figures showed that total enrollment at historically Black colleges and universities slipped 3.7%, with decreases among both undergraduate and graduate students. 

This marks a shift from the prior two years. HBCUs saw year-over-year enrollment rise 1.2% in fall 2022 and 2.4% in fall 2021, according to the clearinghouse. 

This is also a major change from the clearinghouse’s preliminary figures, which estimated in October that overall enrollment had increased 5.1% at HBCUs in fall 2023 compared to the year before. 

However, Shapiro advised that even the final figures be taken with a grain of salt. 

“We had lower coverage of HBCU schools in this report,” Shapiro said. “Fewer of them provided their data in time to be reflected in the numbers for the fall. Those percentages again could change even though this is our final report.”

The final figures show first-year enrollment rose 0.8% in fall 2023 compared to the year before — a reversal from the 3.6% estimated drop based on preliminary figures. However, there was no growth in traditional-age first-year students, which the clearinghouse defines as those who are 20 or younger. 

Instead, older first-year students drove the increase. The number of first-year students 25 and older rose by 6.5%, while the number between 21 and 24 years old increased 6%. 

The figures are a sign for institutions “about the types of programs and the types of support and services that are needed as the student population shifts to older demographic,” Shapiro said. “And I think institutions in many cases are part of this trend by reaching out more to older students.”

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced a wide-ranging slate of higher education initiatives Jan. 9, continuing her effort to boost enrollment at the state's public systems and increase college access.

Under Hochul's proposal, New York high school students who graduate in the top 10% of their class would receive automatic admissions offers to campuses within the State University of New York and the City University of New York systems.

The governor also intends to propose legislation requiring the state's high school seniors to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, Hochul said during her State of the State address.

Hochul’s plan to offer top-performing New York seniors automatic admission to the state’s public colleges mirrors a model pioneered by Texas in the late ’90s, which has since been replicated by several states, and could help boost enrollment. 

SUNY has struggled with declining enrollment for years. After a concerted policy effort, the 64-campus system saw a year-over-year enrollment increase of 1.1% in fall 2023, its first in a decade. But the total number of students that term — almost 368,000 — is well short of the governor's goal of 500,000.

Hochul, who has made higher education and college access a focal point of her administration since taking office in 2021, has previously implemented automatic admissions initiatives.

Last year, she said about 125,000 graduating high school students would be notified of their automatic acceptance to their local SUNY community colleges in the fall. In November, the system touted a 4.3% increase among first-time undergraduates, citing in part, the admissions program.

SUNY Chancellor John King Jr. praised the governor's announcement on Jan. 9.

"This plan will advance equity while helping to retain our most talented students," he said in a joint statement with SUNY's trustees. “Under Governor Hochul’s leadership, New York is making a commitment to public higher education like no other state, and for that we are grateful."

Hochul is also calling on the Legislature to make applying for federal financial aid a state graduation requirement. 

If her plan is approved, nearly every high school senior would need to complete the FAFSA or opt out of the process. For those who are not U.S. citizens, the proposal would direct graduating students to complete the New York State Dream Act application, a form that evaluates eligibility for state‐administered scholarships.

The program is intended to ensure every high schooler knows what financial aid options are available to them, Hochul said. A handful of states are weighing or have already implemented similar FAFSA graduate requirements. 

In addition to these state initiatives, the U.S. Department of Education has revamped the form to make it easier for students. The agency recently released a simplified version of the FAFSA that requires applicants to answer as few as 18 questions. The previous form, which had more than 100, was a known pain point for prospective college students and their families.

As part of her larger proposal, Hochul is also directing the state's public college systems to broaden their student outreach about voter registration and federal food benefits eligibility.

Investing in Division III athletics programs may not yield enrollment growth for their colleges, a recent Urban Institute analysis shows. 

The left-leaning think tank studied 325 DIII colleges. It looked at institutions’ headcounts, as well as the number of varsity sports and full-time head coach positions they created between 2004 and 2020.

The Urban Institute found athletic investments had little correlation with enrollment changes. Of the two-thirds of colleges that added varsity sports or head coaches, less than half saw enrollment increases. And of the 38% of institutions that did not invest in athletics, more than half experienced enrollment growth, the think tank found.

Small private colleges — which include some in DIII — have increasingly tried to drive enrollment increases through athletics.

The basic thinking is better sports options would attract students who would not otherwise consider an institution. Coaches — who at a small institution are often part time or doing multiple jobs — tend to serve as pseudo recruiters in DIII.

In some cases, these bets can pay off big. As the Urban Institute noted, Adrian College, a private liberal arts institution in Michigan, doubled its enrollment after instituting more than 30 new teams since 2005. 

And players at small privates often pay full tuition, making athletic recruiting particularly lucrative, the Urban Institute said. DIII athletes also tend to have higher first-year retention and graduation rates than their peers, the organization said. 

However, returns are not guaranteed, as the think tank stressed. And colleges that put too much money and staffing into athletics may strain their already precarious finances. 

An athletics focus can also alter a campus’ culture or lower academic standards. For example, New College of Florida, a public college, when it massively grew its athletics profile this year, resulting in a drop in average GPA and entrance exam scores. 

The Urban Institute tracked college headcounts one, two, three and five years after athletics investments and found “little statistical relationship between adding more sports or full-time coaches and changes in enrollment.”

In fact, the institute said that “any effects on enrollment are diminished” because colleges are simultaneously trying multiple approaches to draw in students, such as lowering tuition. 

“Ultimately, these findings indicate that investing in athletics is not a silver bullet for small, private colleges looking to boost enrollment, though it’s clear that athletes and athletics are important to the survival of many Division III schools," the Urban Institute said.

Scrutiny over selective college enrollment has increased in recent years in the wake of high profile university scandals and the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent ruling against race-conscious admissions. 

But the majority of students in the U.S. don't attend highly selective colleges. In many cases, the more prevalent admissions issue is convincing students to pursue higher education at all. 

Some higher education experts point to direct admissions as one potential solution to that problem. The practice — where institutions automatically accept students based on data like their GPAs — has slowly been gaining ground. 

Advocates for the policy say it can boost students’ confidence and help them understand they are college material. Results are generally positive, although a bit mixed depending on the policy design. 

Direct admissions programs can take a few different forms. Typically, officials notify eligible high school students that they have been automatically accepted to institutions based on their existing grades. Students can then indicate where they would like to enroll, or apply to other colleges.

“We see direct admissions as moving more people toward going to college and increasing the likelihood that they engage with those institutions,” said Taylor Odle, an education policy professor at the University of Wisconsin at Madison who has studied direct admissions policies. 

Where are direct admissions policies prevalent? 

Idaho, Minnesota and Hawai’i all have statewide direct admissions programs for their public institutions. In 2023, the State University of New York system launched its own program by informing some 125,000 graduating high school students that they had been admitted to their local community colleges. 

Sara Scudder is a college and career access officer at Idaho’s Office of the State Board of Education. Scudder said that the goal of the state’s direct admissions program — called Next Steps Idaho — was to promote a college-going culture. 

Idaho became the first to pioneer statewide direct admissions in 2015, with a program that included both two- and four-year colleges. The model accounts for high school students’ standardized test scores, GPAs and class credits to admit them to participating state institutions, including Boise State University and the University of Idaho. 

“The kids just feel this sort of relief,” Scudder said. “They know they’ve been admitted and now it’s just a matter of, ‘Which one do I want to go to?’”

The program has successfully reversed declining postsecondary enrollment and reduced the number of students leaving the state to attend college, Scudder said. 

One analysis found enrollment across the state’s two- and four-year colleges increased 3.1% in 2016 compared to the year before, when the direct admissions policy launched. Researchers also found average undergraduate enrollment increased by around 11% at the institutional level following the change. 

A study co-authored by Odle compared results in Idaho to a control group of similar institutions that didn’t undertake direct admissions initiatives. By comparing these groups, researchers found that Idaho increased first-time enrollment at participating institutions by 4% to 8% and in-state enrollment by 8% to 15%.

Most of the student growth was concentrated in two-year institutions with open enrollment. 

However, the study did not show that Idaho’s direct admissions effort increased enrollment of students who were awarded federal Pell Grants compared to the control group. 

Idaho’s program has been relatively inexpensive and easy to maintain. It requires an annual budget of $30,000 per year, most of which is spent on designing and sending the letters to students. 

Existing staff handle other efforts for the initiative, such as talking to colleges, Scudder said. 

Idaho’s education board oversees the direct admissions program. The program is fairly nimble, as legislative action is not needed to make changes, and the office already has jurisdiction over high school data. In other states, memorandums between state agencies and more funding may be required to administer a similar program.

“I probably on a weekly basis talk to an entity or a state that’s wanting to find out more about our program,” Scudder said. “Each state that has been coming out with a direct admissions program has modeled it on their own state climate.”

The Common App, a nonprofit organization that allows students to apply to hundreds of institutions through a single portal, has also been experimenting with direct admissions since 2021, including with private institutions. 

After several pilot programs, the organization announced in December a new initiative with 70 participating public and private colleges. 

Those institutions will set admissions parameters, including minimum GPAs for students in their states. Meanwhile, the Common App will find qualified low- and middle-income and first-generation students using data they have entered on their college applications. 

Students can then apply without a fee and are guaranteed to get in. 

J.T. Smith is dean of admissions at Regis University in Colorado, one of the institutions participating in the Common App program. He said that he is hopeful that the initiative will help increase enrollment of lower-income Colorado students at the Jesuit Catholic institution. 

Regis saw enrollment decline over the past decade, as many institutions did, and has room for more first-year students. 

Between 2012 and 2022, fall undergraduate enrollment fell 57.8% to just under 2,400 students, according to federal data. Currently, the university has about 500 first-year students and about 1,800 full-time on-campus undergraduates. 

In 2022, more than half of Regis' incoming students were Pell-eligible. 

“We want to reach out to as many students as we can to let them know that they are not only wanted, but they are welcome here at Regis University,” Smith said. 

The institution plans to assign one admissions team member to all of the new applicants through the initiative. Accepted students will receive a merit scholarship of $30,000 per year. The average financial aid for a first-year student is a bit over $39,000, according to the Regis website.

Does direct admissions work?

The Common App piloted its direct admissions program beginning in 2021. 

An August working paper co-authored by Odle reviewed the Common App’s second round of the program. It found about 3% of students who received admission offers through the program applied, roughly double the share of those who didn’t. 

Students who received an offer were also more likely to apply to any college at all. Those impacts were greater for students from underrepresented groups.

But the pilots didn’t change the likelihood that students would enroll in college. Part of that, Odle said, is because students who fill out the Common App are already more likely than their peers to go to college. It would be difficult to boost their enrollment rates, Odle said. 

Money also may play a role. 

Students still need to fill out applications for federal financial aid and pay for college. 

Odle said direct admissions is most effective when paired with other equity-boosting measures, such as student supports. For instance, pairing direct admissions offers with financial aid offers could increase students’ likelihood of attendance. 

Overall, policy design should focus on simplifying the process and breaking down knowledge barriers for students, Odle said. Anything that adds requirements, like the creation of a portfolio, can make things even more complicated for students. 

 “You’re not going to adopt a direct admissions policy, which is remarkably cheap, and then just see these huge increases in enrollment,” Odle said. “Because there are other very real barriers that are in students’ way.”  

When choosing how to fill their incoming classes, highly selective colleges have several tools at their disposal. But many of those admissions practices are facing accusations that they perpetuate unequal access to higher education. 

Advocates for low-income students have called for an end to early decision admissions policies, along with practices that favor the children of alumni and donors. Early decision requires students to attend an institution if they are accepted, meaning they must pledge to enroll before seeing their financial aid packages. 

“It’s really a form of affirmative action for well-off students,” said Marcella Bombardieri, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank. “You have to be comfortable that you’re going to be able to afford that college.”

Still, few institutions are ending their early decision programs, which enable them to lock down their incoming class and ensure they don’t lose students to other colleges. 

Why early decision is under fire

An analysis of 2021 college applications sent via the Common App found that students from the wealthiest ZIP codes were twice as likely to apply through early decision than all other applicants, according to a 2022 report from Education Reform Now, a progressive think tank. The Common App allows students to submit applications to more than 1,000 member colleges. 

And that choice often has an effect on the likelihood of acceptance. At Brown, for example, only 4% of students who applied by the regular deadline were accepted in 2020, compared to 18% of those who applied through early decision. 

Some colleges fill much of their incoming classes with early decision students. And several have vastly increased that share over the past few years. 

At Bates College, in Maine, officials admitted 60% of the first-year class through early decision in 2015. In 2020, that share rose to 81%. 

Early decision applicants comprised at least half of that year's first-year class at other selective colleges, including Columbia University, Dartmouth College, Middlebury College and Wesleyan University, Education Reform Now found. All of those institutions increased their share from 2015 to 2020. 

Early decision policies, however, affect just a small share of prospective college students in the U.S. 

Across all of higher ed, only about 12% of four-year institutions reported receiving early decision applications in 2020, according to Education Reform Now. Because the policies are most often found at highly selective institutions, and rarely at public universities, the share of students who are affected is also relatively small. 

But education observers say that the choices of highly selective institutions matter because they have outsized influence on the upper echelons of American society. 

“They are training grounds for the elite,” Bombardieri said. 

Why colleges still use early decision

The criticisms haven’t stopped many colleges and universities from using and relying on early decision admissions policies. For administrations, the policies are convenient and offer their institutions a competitive edge. 

First, they increase yield — the number of accepted students who end up enrolling. That makes it easier for enrollment management teams to judge how many students they can expect to matriculate. 

“College applications used to send a very clear signal about where you were willing to go,” said Evan Mandery, a professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and the author of “Poison Ivy: How Elite Colleges Divide Us.” 

Because applying to colleges was more laborious before digital tools and the Common App, prospective students sent fewer applications, prioritizing institutions they were excited to attend, he said. 

“Colleges are much more eager than they used to be to determine whether people will matriculate, and early decision is their simple way to do that,” he said. 

Second, early decision policies give colleges opportunities to pull in highly qualified students who are likely to also be accepted at other places. Once they are admitted through early decision, colleges don’t need to worry about losing them to other institutions. 

Some students and families also prefer the option to apply early and get the college admissions process over and done with. 

In 2006, Harvard University, Princeton University and the University of Virginia all announced they were ending their early decision programs over equity concerns, only to bring them back years later. 

In 2011, then-Princeton President Shirley Tilghman said the university had hoped other colleges would follow suit, but they largely hadn’t. That led to the Ivy League university missing out on potential applicants, Tilghman said. 

“Institutions that are highly selective will do it to remain competitive,” said Jill Orcutt, global lead at AACRAO Consulting, part of the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers. “But it does not favor students who have fewer resources or access to information.”

A changing landscape

Higher education experts said they expected to see fewer institutions using early decision policies after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against race-conscious admissions policies in 2023. Because institutions can no longer accept students with race in mind, experts anticipated that highly selective colleges would make changes to recruit diverse classes.  

However, that decline in early decision has largely not come to pass — at least not yet. Nearly all institutions so far are maintaining their early decision policies, although some have said they are taking time to reconsider it. 

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, better known as Virginia Tech, is an exception. 

In July, the university announced that it would end its early decision policy and move up its deadline for early action, which is a nonbinding way for applicants to learn earlier in the admissions cycle whether they have been admitted. Virginia Tech also said it would end legacy admissions, which gives a leg up to applicants related to alumni. 

Ending early decision had little to do with the recent Supreme Court ruling, said Juan Espinoza, associate vice provost of enrollment management and director of undergraduate admissions at Virginia Tech. 

Out of around 47,000 annual applications, only about 3,500 were for early decision, Espinoza said. However, that smaller pool was used to fill about 20% of seats in the incoming class. And the socioeconomic standing of those students was generally much higher than for other applicants, indicating the program was out of reach for most.

“Here is an option that is really only catering to a very small group of our overall applicants,” Espinoza said. “How can we make this more accessible, how can we make it feel more inclusive for all of our students, and how can we streamline this for all of our students from an efficiency standpoint?” 

Having to review early decision applicants — in addition to early action and regular decision — took significant time and resources, Espinoza said. 

He doesn’t anticipate the choice to affect enrollment. Although it is early in the cycle, applications to Virginia Tech were ahead in volume over last year as of early November.  

“Each year we will continue to make these reviews, continue to hear feedback from our students and try our best to make it the best, most equitable process, and fair and transparent process, for our applicants,” Espinoza said.

Out-of-state enrollment at the University of Wisconsin at Madison jumped by 29% from fall 2016 to fall 2019 after officials removed a cap on out-of-state students, according to a working paper from American and Canadian researchers. 

Tuition revenue rose 47% over that time frame. Researchers found the new revenue was used to fund an increase in financial aid for lower-income students, particularly those whose families earned less than $30,000 a year. 

Some researchers believe that increasing out-of-state enrollment will harm an institution’s academic quality, according to the paper. But the study, which has not been peer reviewed, showed lifting the out-of-state cap didn’t significantly affect measures of academic quality. 

Institutions that are similar to UW-Madison might benefit from changing their own policies capping out-of-state enrollment, said Natalia Orlova, a co-author of the study who is now a research data specialist with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

Colleges most likely to benefit include those with declining funding, the capacity to enroll more students, and a reputation that will draw out-of-state students. 

“If you are trying to get a little bit more funding for the university, we would say that if you have any caps on out-of-state enrollment, you could try lifting those and seeing what happens for the next few years,” Orlova said. 

UW-Madison previously capped out-of-state undergraduate enrollment at 27.5%. In 2015, the university lifted the cap and replaced it with a policy requiring the institution to enroll 3,600 first-year students from Wisconsin each fall. That fall, the university admitted 4,685 first-year students. 

In 2019, officials changed the policy again. Now, UW-Madison must enroll 5,200 new in-state students each year, based on a three-year rolling average. This policy counts transfer students and Minnesota students covered by tuition reciprocity agreements with the Wisconsin university system. 

In fall 2022, the university added more than 9,700 new students, both transfers and first-time undergraduates.

Previous research has suggested out-of-state students crowd out those from low-income backgrounds. It’s also suggested out-of-state enrollment can bring down an institution’s academic quality, harming in-state students. 

But the working paper’s researchers found no statistically significant changes to the four-year graduation rate or student-to-faculty ratio, nor changes to retention, after the policy change. 

The average size of an institutional grant at UW-Madison during the study period increased by nearly 30%. For students with a family income below $30,000, the average financial aid rose around 24%.

Other states, such as California and North Carolina, have caps on the share of out-of-state students who can be enrolled at public universities. But even at institutions without a formal cap, there is often an implicit agreement to limit this enrollment, Orlova said. 

“The core of it is the notion that in-state universities were built to serve in-state students,” she said. “There’s still a sentiment that we should not be enrolling that many students from outside.”

The track through community college into a career often appears amorphous and opaque to students. But many colleges have attempted to address this problem over the past decade by adopting a popular set of reforms known as guided pathways. 

The framework aims to make educational pathways clear so students can finish their course of study and land a job in their desired field. The reforms include overhauling how colleges help students choose programs and assist them in staying on their path. 

In 2015, the American Association of Community Colleges launched an initiative called the Pathways Project to help community colleges implement some of these reforms. From 2016 to 2022, 30 community colleges participated in the project, pledging to redesign their student experiences. 

One of the major areas of revision for those colleges was the onboarding process, according to a recent report from the Community College Research Center. Done correctly, onboarding can help students understand, select and enter a program of study. 

Below, community college leaders share what has worked for them.

Diving into majors

One of the key areas of the guided pathways framework is the development of “meta-majors.” They organize individual programs into broad fields of study, such as health sciences, to help students understand their options. The number of meta-majors colleges have depends on the sort of programs they offer and what’s in demand in the local labor market. 

Meta-majors were useful to help colleges to map their offerings, said Hana Lahr, director of applied learning at the CCRC. But their greatest utility came when colleges incorporated them into other onboarding processes, Lahr said. 

“At first they were viewed as a kind of organizing structure for the college,” Lahr said.”But what we learned is that they actually need to be used in other ways to really impact the student experience.”

At St. Petersburg College in Florida, officials incorporated meta-majors into the application process. 

“Before this project, what we found is that when you just list all the majors, students get overwhelmed on the application,” said Kellie Ziemak, executive director of student affairs and enrollment management at St. Petersburg. “Sometimes they didn’t complete it because they didn’t know what to choose.”

St. Petersburg instead had prospective students select a meta-major and then pick from a shorter list of majors within that area. 

The college also assigned advisers based on students’ fields of study. That allowed staff to specialize in specific areas rather than acting as generalists. 

Some of the participating colleges also limited the number of programs after looking at labor market trends. 

“Does this certificate or degree lead to a job in our area? Are there jobs available? And are the entry-level jobs at a family sustaining wage?” said Laurel Williamson, deputy chancellor and college president at San Jacinto College in Texas. “If the answer to any of those was no, then we took a deeper dive into asking ourselves, why are we offering this?”

‘Don’t let students languish’

Colleges implemented several different methods to help students understand and select their programs. 

St. Petersburg’s advisers, for instance, assess how sure students are about their chosen pathways. Students who are not confident in their career choices or programs of study need different guidance than those who are, Ziemak said. 

At San Jacinto College, advisers talk directly with students about their career aspirations. They provide information about the types of jobs they could enter with specific credentials — along with what those positions pay. 

“We immediately have discussions with students about, ‘What is your goal?’” Williamson said. “We don’t let students languish.”

At St. Petersburg College, all students take a test to gauge their interests based on the Holland Codes, a widely used career aptitude system. The test evaluates each student’s personality and interest in six personality areas: artistic, social, conventional, investigative, enterprising and realistic. 

Advisers discuss the results with students. If a student’s career choice is incongruous with their skill interests, an adviser can help them think through whether that option is the best one for them. 

For example, Ziemak said, a student may say they want to go into nursing. 

“But their Holland Code is saying they are highly artistic and they’re low in helping and social,” she said. “Let’s talk about what nursing looks like.”

At San Jacinto College, all students take an English or psychology course that includes a career project. This involves students researching the career path they’ve chosen, what sort of jobs are available, and potential pathways to land them. Some students also shadow faculty to understand their day-to-day work. 

“We do that in their first set of courses because if they change their mind, we want them to do that early so we can get them on the right path,” Williamson said. 

What are the results?

Colleges that took part in the project saw some of their student outcomes improve.

At San Jacinto, before the guided pathways implementation, students were taking an average of 90 credits on their way to a 60-credit associate degree, Williamson said. Today, students are taking about 74 on average.

The number of students at the college who are in “general studies,” which functions as an undecided major, also declined by more than a quarter. In fall of 2014, more than 12,000 students were in general studies. This past fall, that number fell to a little over 8,000. 

Across 29 colleges that participated in the pathways project, the average number of credits that students attempted and completed rose between 2012 and 2020. 

Implementing the reforms wasn’t always easy, Williamson said, but it was worth it. 

“Change is always hard,” she said. “We are doing this with the student at the center of the conversation.”

International enrollment in the U.S. spiked 11.5% in the 2022-23 academic year, representing the fastest growth of this student population in over four decades, according to data released Nov. 13 by the Institute of International Education and the U.S. Department of State. 

That year, the U.S. hosted more than 1 million foreign students, who accounted for about 5.6% of the total college population. The gains have almost reversed heavy international enrollment losses seen during the pandemic’s early days. 

“Over one million international students studying in the U.S. reflects a strong rebound, with the number approaching pre-pandemic levels,” Allan Goodman, IIE’s CEO, said in a statement. “This reinforces that the U.S. remains the destination of choice for international students wishing to study abroad, as it has been for more than a century.”

All types of international students increased. 

That includes those in Optional Practical Training programs, which allows foreign students to work in the U.S. for up to three years after they finish their program. OPT participation grew to around 199,000 students, up 7.6% from the year before. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. hosted about 348,000 international undergraduate students, a 0.9% increase over the year before. And there were about 467,000 international graduate students, up 21.3% compared to the previous year. 

International student growth is likely to continue, according to early figures. A poll of more than 630 colleges showed that those institutions have seen an 8% uptick in the number of foreign students they’re hosting in 2023-24. 

Below, we’re looking deeper at other trends in international enrollment. 

New international student enrollment continued to grow

New international student enrollment is close to record levels. In 2022-23, the U.S. hosted nearly 299,000 new international students, a 14% increase from the year before. 

The spikes were seen across all academic levels. There were almost 96,000 new foreign undergraduate students, up 5.6% from the previous year, and nearly 34,000 nondegree students, a whopping 36.8% increase. 

New international graduate enrollment was the largest group, with almost 169,000 students. That represents a 15.3% year-over-year increase. 

That growth appears poised to continue in the 2023-24 academic year — though at a slower clip. Polled colleges say they’ve seen a 2% increase in new international students this academic year. 

More than half, 57%, said they’ve seen an increase in new international students, while 30% reported a decline. The remaining colleges saw flat enrollment.

International enrollment from India saw rapid growth

Although China retained its spot as the No. 1 place of origin for international students studying in the U.S., India is quickly gaining ground. 

India sent almost 269,000 students to the U.S. for college, up 35% from the year before. Meanwhile, students coming from China dipped 0.2%, declining to around 290,000 students. 

Of surveyed colleges, 7 in 10 say they’re focusing undergraduate recruiting efforts on international students from India. Two-thirds of colleges say the same for students from Vietnam, and a little over half say they’re focusing on recruiting undergraduate students from China and South Korea. 

India is also a top place of focus for graduate recruitment, with 8 in 10 surveyed colleges saying they’re targeting their efforts there. Only 46% said the same of China. 

Math and computer science continues to prove popular

Around 240,000 international students headed to the U.S. to study math and computer science fields in the 2022-23 academic year, up 19.9% from the year before. Engineering was also popular, attracting nearly 203,000 international students, a 7.8% year-over-year increase. Business and management followed, with a 6.8% increase raising enrollment levels to a little over 157,000 students. 

Less popular fields included legal studies and law enforcement, education, humanities, agriculture and intensive English, which each saw under 20,000 international students. However, intensive English saw the largest year-over-year increase, at 41.4%.

Preliminary enrollment data for fall 2023 largely brought good news to colleges and universities. 

Undergraduate enrollment rose 2.1% compared to the year before, with all major institutional sectors enjoying increases, including four-year institutions and community colleges. Meanwhile, graduate enrollment rose 0.7%, an encouraging sign for the sector after headcounts dropped 0.9% in fall 2022. 

But initial figures also pointed to storm clouds ahead. First-year enrollment fell 3.6% this fall, nearly reversing gains colleges saw last year in this group. 

The findings are based on preliminary data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center as of Sept. 28. They come from 55% of the Title IV, degree-granting colleges that participate in the clearinghouse, covering about 9.6 million college students. 

Below, we further break down some of the enrollment trends:

Short-term credentials continued to prove popular among undergraduate and graduate students. In fall 2023, enrollment in undergraduate certificate programs shot up 9.9% compared to the year before, while graduate certificate enrollment rose 5.7%. 

Degree programs didn’t fare as well. Master’s programs saw the smallest enrollment increase, of 0.2%, followed by bachelor’s degree programs, which saw headcounts rise 0.9%.

Declines in first-year students were concentrated at four-year colleges, public and private. Enrollment of this group fell 6.1% at public four-year colleges and 4% at private nonprofits. 

The first-year population at community colleges, meanwhile, mostly held steady, declining by only 0.2%. And for-profit four-year colleges enjoyed a large 10.8% increase in first-year students.

Nearly all racial and ethnic groups the clearinghouse tracked saw enrollment increases at the undergraduate and graduate levels.

Latinx students had the largest enrollment growth at undergraduate level, rising by 4.2%. Meanwhile, Asian students had the largest increase at the graduate level, ticking up 6%. 

However, enrollment of White students fell 0.9% at the undergraduate level and 1.9% at the graduate level.

Enrollment trends were mixed across age groups. Those 17 or younger, which captures high school students in dual enrollment programs, rose 8.8%, continuing rapid increases from the year before. 

Students between the ages of 18 and 20 also saw an uptick of 3%. Enrollment of students older than 30 similarly increased by 2.9% 

However, students between the ages of 21 and 29 saw declines of around 1%.

Most states enjoyed overall enrollment increases. Only nine states saw declines, with Vermont’s 4.7% enrollment decrease representing the largest dip. Iowa and Pennsylvania, meanwhile, had essentially flat enrollment.

The preliminary data does not include figures for Massachusetts, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island or Washington due low institution counts or low enrollment coverage, according to the clearinghouse.

Correction: This article has been updated to note that the preliminary data does not include overall enrollment figures for Massachusetts.

Colleges’ ability to adapt their academic programs based on student interests and labor market demands will become increasingly important to counter enrollment challenges, suggests a new analysis from Moody’s Investors Service. 

Institutions equipped to closely track shifting student interests and adjust their offerings accordingly stand to benefit when trying to recruit enrollees, the analysis said.

For instance, computer and information sciences programs’ undergraduate enrollment has grown across public colleges, even though the number of undergraduates broadly has declined. Focusing on these degrees could help boost enrollment and avoid financial distress, Moody's said.

College enrollment has yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels, with undergraduate numbers falling 7.7% between spring 2019 and spring 2023, Moody's said.

Institutions are also preparing for the 2025 demographic cliff — an expected dropoff in high school graduates due to declining birth rates during the Great Recession. 

To adapt programs to student and labor market demands, colleges could create new credentials or eliminate existing ones that no longer attract students. 

"To be sure, the connection between student interest in degree programs and labor market dynamics is imperfect," the analysis said. "But data that takes into account mid-career wages and underemployment by bachelor's degree program shows a handful of programs that offer universities a significant opportunity to grow or stabilize enrollment, including computer science and engineering." 

But pivoting to in-demand technology fields isn't a panacea for colleges. 

Improving computer science programs can be expensive, as qualified faculty may receive competing compensation offers, Moody’s said. 

"There is also no guarantee the job market won't cool for graduates in the field as technology becomes more advanced," the analysis said. "The rapid rise of artificial intelligence will create workforce demand, but AI could also drive productivity gains in the workplace that could soften demand and enrollment over time."

In the for-profit sector, institutions focused on healthcare will likely see increased enrollment and revenue due to a shortage of healthcare professionals and strong market demand.

Some colleges may consider cutting back in certain areas, Moody's said. The credit ratings agency cited disproportionately declining interest in the liberal arts and humanities as a sign more colleges may weigh scaling back those programs.

Two-year colleges and baccalaureate institutions that primarily grant associate degrees have the most flexibility when downsizing, as their workforce relies heavily on adjunct and part-time professors. A tenured labor force can make consolidation a significant challenge, the analysis said.

Some colleges have already begun paring down.

In September, West Virginia University's governing board voted to eliminate 28 degree programs in subjects like foreign languages and music as a means of reducing a $45 million deficit. The state flagship's plan, which is also cutting about 140 faculty positions, garnered significant student and employee backlash.

Moody's noted that WVU directed its cuts at underenrolled programs.

"While the majors represent 8% of the total number of majors at the school, the programs accounted for just 1.4% of enrollment," the analysis said.