More adults are interested in pursuing higher education than in recent years, new research shows, but experts say prospective enrollees want to know they'll get a strong return on their investment.
"People are saying they want to know that their postsecondary experience is going to translate into economic benefit," John King Jr., chancellor of the State University of New York system, said during a Wednesday higher education panel organized by the Lumina Foundation and Gallup.
"If we're honest, not all our institutions across the higher ed sector deliver on that promise," he said.
Lumina and Gallup hosted higher education leaders and experts at an event unveiling their annual report on the state of the sector.
Based on a nationally representative survey of adults without a college degree, the organizations found that a majority of adults who aren’t enrolled in postsecondary education are considering pursuing a credential in the near future.
That's a good sign for college leaders as the sector grapples with widespread enrollment challenges. Rising interest in college is in part driven by the belief among prospective students that higher education will help them in the job market, according to the report.
Higher education is still "the data-proven pathway for economic mobility in our country,” Madeline Pumariega, president of Miami Dade College, said Wednesday
"There is not one employer saying to us, 'I need someone that has less education,'" she said.
Interest in enrolling
A decline in birth rates during the Great Recession is expected to create an "enrollment cliff," with the number of high school graduates projected to sharply fall beginning around 2025. As a result, institutions are increasingly looking to recruit adult learners and those who left college before finishing a credential, two groups who often have to prioritize work when considering higher education.
Among unenrolled adults, 51% said they were likely to pursue a postsecondary credential in the next five years, the survey found. That's the highest rate of interest recorded by Lumina and Gallup since they started the survey in 2020.
Researchers polled a sample of 14,000-plus adults between the ages 18 and 59 who do not have a college degree. This group includes people who are currently enrolled, those who have stopped out, and those who have never attended a higher education institution.
The survey found 84% of current and prospective students cited at least one job-related motivation for attending or considering college. A majority, 59%, said a degree or credential would help them gain knowledge and skills, the most common reason given.
No one wakes up in the morning going, 'I want to take a noncredit course.' They are interested in leveling up or upskilling.
Madeline Pumariega
President of Miami Dade College
Interest in industry certification programs is driving the increased enthusiasm for postsecondary education, the report said, aligning with survey respondents' focus on career advancement.
Barriers to enrollment
Survey respondents expressed concern over the monetary and time commitments college would require.
A majority of unenrolled adults, 85%, cited the cost of higher ed as a moderately or very important barrier keeping them from attending college, the survey found.
Challenges with the Free Application for Federal Student Aid this financial aid cycle have made it difficult for some prospective students to understand their options for paying for higher education.
Colleges and states rely on the form to distribute financial aid, but the rollout of the new FAFSA has been plagued by technical glitches, last-minute changes and delays.
About half of all survey respondents, 53%, said financial aid and scholarships were or would be important factors when deciding to enroll or stay enrolled.
"I don't think this has a major impact on the Ivy Leagues or someone who was already planning for college," Pumariega said. Those affected are "students who are not sure that they belong in college," she said.
The Education Department has cleared its backlog of FAFSAs, but the number of applications it has received is still 16% lower than this point last year, James Kvaal, the U.S. Department of Education's top higher education official, said Wednesday. Earlier this week, the department announced a $50 million outreach effort to close the FAFSA completion gap.
"Obviously, the implementation has not gone as we would have liked," Kvaal told attendees. He stressed the importance of colleges, governments and communities groups working together to encourage students to fill out the application.
"If you're waiting to fill out the FAFSA because of the headlines and you wanted the dust to settle, now's the time," he said.
Survey respondents cited potential scheduling conflicts with work as the second most common barrier to enrollment, followed by the time it takes to earn a credential and the emotional stress it could inflict.
Pumariega recommended colleges make it as easy as possible for students to go from taking noncredit offerings to enrolling in classes that can earn them credit toward a credential.
She said the same principle applied to stackable credentials — such as a certificate program designed to easily allow students to transition to an associate degree.
"No one wakes up in the morning going, 'I want to take a noncredit course.' They are interested in leveling up or upskilling," Pumariega said.
